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Village How did transformer imports change last quarter, and which countries drove it?

Calling village

Imports rose 18% from the quarter before, the fastest pace in two years. Mexico was the largest source at 41% of units, and new shippers out of Vietnam drove most of the rest.

transformer-imports-q3.xlsx Spreadsheet
Country Share QoQ
Mexico 41% +22%
Vietnam 19% +64%
South Korea 14% +3%

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Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google spend on OpenRouter

OpenRouter stopped reporting dollars Rebuilt from spend weights
Sep Sep 15 Oct

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Electrification will outrun the grid. Are transformer makers adding capacity or only raising prices?

  • SEC EDGAR filings Reported financials Order backlogs up 31% at the top 3 makers
  • Earnings calls Management commentary Gross margin up 4 pts, unit volume flat
  • Maricopa permits Permits 2 plant expansion permits filed this year
  • Census trade API Import records Transformer imports up 18% year over year

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Village finds the sources that answer each question

Are transformer imports keeping pace with substation requests?

Looked across 14 data sources in 5 monitors

Substation requests in Arizona are up 41% this year. Transformer imports are up 18% over the same period, order backlogs at the top 3 makers are up 31%, and quoted lead times are over 2 years.

  • Census trade API
  • Arizona utility filings
  • SEC EDGAR filings
  • Earnings calls

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Coinbase trading volume and transaction revenue

Coinbase’s Exchange API publishes daily prices and amounts traded for BTC, ETH, LTC, and BCH, which we convert into quarterly estimated trading volume.

Estimated trading volume
Reported transaction revenue
Q3 ’26
Coinbase quarterly estimated trading volume and reported transaction revenueA dual-axis line chart shows the raw quarterly values for estimated dollar trading volume across Coinbase BTC, ETH, LTC, and BCH markets and Coinbase reported transaction revenue, from 2021Q1 through 2026Q2. Estimated trading volume is base volume multiplied by mean daily open, high, low, and close price. Dashed lines end at red points showing projected 2026Q3 trading volume and the revenue prediction from the year-over-year growth model using activity through Aug 2.010020001,0002,000Estimated trading volume ($B)Reported transaction revenue ($M)Q1 ’21Q1 ’22Q1 ’23Q1 ’24Q1 ’25Q1 ’26Q3 ’26Q3 ’26 prediction: $48.0B estimated trading volumeQ3 ’26 prediction: $359M transaction revenue

Coinbase revenue growth model and Q3 ’26 prediction

Linear regression of reported transaction revenue YoY change on estimated trading volume YoY change, fit on Q1 2022–Q2 2025 and tested on Q3 2025–Q2 2026. Because trading volume is available at quarter end, the model can estimate revenue 30–44 days before Coinbase reports earnings.

Train
Test
Q3 ’26
Coinbase year-over-year revenue growth model trained through 2025Q2, tested from 2025Q3 through 2026Q2, with a 2026Q3 predictionGray squares are the 14 quarters used to fit a relationship between year-over-year changes in estimated trading volume and reported transaction revenue. The model was frozen after 2025Q2. Blue squares are the 4 held-out results, and each vertical connector runs from the fixed model to reported revenue growth. The red 2026Q3 point uses activity through Aug 2.-50%0%+100%+200%-50%0%+50%+100%Trading volume YoY changeTransaction revenue YoY changeQ1 ’22 training data: -32.3% estimated trading volume and -34.2% reported transaction revenueQ2 ’22 training data: -49.1% estimated trading volume and -66.1% reported transaction revenueQ3 ’22 training data: -12.3% estimated trading volume and -66.4% reported transaction revenueQ4 ’22 training data: -39.6% estimated trading volume and -85.9% reported transaction revenueQ1 ’23 training data: -35.5% estimated trading volume and -63.0% reported transaction revenueQ2 ’23 training data: -48.6% estimated trading volume and -50.1% reported transaction revenueQ3 ’23 training data: -58.9% estimated trading volume and -21.1% reported transaction revenueQ4 ’23 training data: -31.0% estimated trading volume and +64.3% reported transaction revenueQ1 ’24 training data: +70.0% estimated trading volume and +187.4% reported transaction revenueQ2 ’24 training data: +88.9% estimated trading volume and +138.7% reported transaction revenueQ3 ’24 training data: +113.5% estimated trading volume and +98.4% reported transaction revenueQ4 ’24 training data: +134.8% estimated trading volume and +194.0% reported transaction revenueQ1 ’25 training data: +6.3% estimated trading volume and +17.2% reported transaction revenueQ2 ’25 training data: -2.8% estimated trading volume and -2.1% reported transaction revenueQ3 ’26 prediction as of Aug 2: -60.5% estimated trading volume, -65.7% transaction revenue, or $359MQ3 ’26Q3 ’25 held-out test: +73.2% estimated revenue growth, +82.8% reported revenue growth, 9.5 percentage-point errorQ3 ’25Q4 ’25 held-out test: -10.3% estimated revenue growth, -36.8% reported revenue growth, 26.5 percentage-point errorQ4 ’25Q1 ’26 held-out test: -17.0% estimated revenue growth, -40.1% reported revenue growth, 23.1 percentage-point errorQ1 ’26Q2 ’26 held-out test: -12.2% estimated revenue growth, -21.6% reported revenue growth, 9.4 percentage-point errorQ2 ’26

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